This article was originally published in the Colour Cosmetics Trend Report. Receive your copy here
Make-up trends change in the blink of a winged eye.
A couple of months ago – out of the blue – came bold lime green make-up, complete with smudged eyeliner and a throwback grunge aesthetic as brat girl summer landed.
The trend which followed Charli XCX’s Brat album release in June, catapulted the singer’s signature smoky make-up look into icon status, and just like that, the ‘brat’ era superseded the ‘clean girl’ aesthetic.
Barbiecore seems like a distant memory now that bratcore is here, but what it does show is that colour cosmetics trends can change both radically and rapidly, in the most unexpected ways.
“The interesting thing about trends at the moment is that they are mostly unpredictable,” explains Dominic Skinner, Director of Artistry at MAC Cosmetics.
“There is a general air of excitement with colour cosmetics,” he adds.
The global $73.8bn colour cosmetics market grew by 8.7% overall last year according to Euromonitor International.
And while lip glosses were a key driver of growth for the colour cosmetics category last year, lip gloss sales between January and July 2024 have slowed to a 4% rise according to Circana data for Europe.
“Lip make-up is growing by 12% overall but growth is now coming from additional products such as lip liners, and other types of lip products such as tinted balms or oils, which are growing by 45% on last year.
Clinique, for example launched its cult classic Black Honey Lipstick as a limited edition Pop Lip and Cheek Oil format this year, while Ciaté London introduced Watermelon Burst 2-in-1 Lipbalm and Mask that provides instant hydration and offers a glossy glass finish.
The interesting thing about trends at the moment is that they are mostly unpredictable - Dominic Skinner, Director of Artistry, MAC Cosmetics.
Face make-up – another segment driving category growth this year – has similarly been boosted by non-traditional formats and products that add in additional steps to the make-up routine.
While foundation sales were up just 1%, highlighters increased by 31%, setting sprays rose by 63% and sales of blush – bolstered by newer liquid and stick formats – were up by 50%, according to Circana’s Europe data.
In the UK, Kantar data shows that highlighter sales rocketed by 57% over the past year, and the segment has doubled in size versus two years ago.
While the ‘brat’ era encapsulates the shift away from pared back, minimalist make-up, bolder, maximalist looks have been on the rise generally.
“We can see today that professional make-up is back after years of more minimal looks when consumers were getting rid of some of their routines in make-up,” says Mathilde Lion, Director of Beauty, Europe, at Circana.
“There is a lot of innovation in textures and usage so I think we will continue to see new types of products appearing that will create excitement with consumers,” she adds.
While it is difficult to predict what the next hot trend will be, Lion says that there are still opportunities in most make-up segments.
“Even if eye make-up is slower now, it doesn’t mean that the next trend won’t be based on eyeshadow or eyeliner.
“Make-up is unpredictable in a way, and trends change so fast that a segment can explode quickly.”
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Trend 1: The rise and fall of blushmania
Blush-heavy looks have been one of the most defining make-up trends of the 2020s, and this summer it seems to have reached its peak.
After several years of trends spanning from tomato girl to strawberry girl and now pomegranate girl make-up, not to mention boyfriend blush, glazed blush and sunset blush, looks have grown increasingly bold.
Sabrina Carpenter's use of blush has gone viral, while on TikTok, #overblushing has nearly 40 million posts, while #blushblindness – the inability to gauge the correct amount of blush placement – has been trending on TikTok too.
As bold aesthetics tend to rise and fall in make-up, this trend explores if blush is to the 2020s what bold brows and contouring were to the 2010s, or whether something more is going on with statement blush.
Trend 2: Setting sprays
Setting sprays have become a staple in beauty routines as a way to keep make-up in place all day and withstand summer heat.
But while the products have been around for years, 2024 has seen an even stronger uptick in sales of setting sprays and a surge in innovations taking the trend into new directions.
According to Circana, sales of setting sprays and powders have risen by 63% across Europe between January and June 2024.
And as one of the biggest beauty trends on TikTok, make-up setting sprays have garnered 774.7 million views, with an increase of 224% (332.4 million) in views since last year, according to Spate.
This trend explores how product development has moved beyond long lasting benefits to deliver a bespoke skin finish, tapping into trending glossy, dewy or cloud-like looks.
Trend 3: The new era of lip liners
From french tip nails to blue eyeshadow, 90s make-up looks continue their revival in 2024.
On Pinterest, searches for ‘90s lip’ have rocketed by 760%, according to the social media platform’s summer 2024 trend report, so it is little wonder that lip liner – and throwback looks such as dark lip liner with a lighter shade of lipstick aka ‘the supermodel look’ – have enjoyed a particular resurgence.
But the trend for lip liner has also moved beyond its nostalgic charm.
Sales have boomed in 2024, with Circana data for Europe between January and June citing growth of 28% compared to the same period in 2023, as lip liners enter a new era.
Not only has there been a step up in innovation from brands launching more sophisticated formulas and broader shade ranges, consumers’ increasingly professional approach to make-up application has led to the discovery of lip liner as a means to create different looks, from lifted to fuller lips or even as an alternative to lip filler.
Trend 4: The business of beauty merch
From Hailey Bieber’s Rhode Lip Case to Harry Styles’ ready-to-wear clothing collection, some of the hottest launches from cosmetics brands in 2024 have been merch not make-up.
The buzziest brands in beauty have moved beyond cosmetics to selling a lifestyle that provides consumers with a sense of community and belonging, according to Ashley Wong Tsui, CEO of custom merchandising company Gemnote.
“We know merch can increase revenue for brands and it’s highly profitable given the margins,” adds Wong Tsui. “Merchandise is proving to be very successful, which is why almost every beauty brand catering to millennials and Gen Z is selling branded merch via their websites, retail pop-ups or experiential activations – to diversify their revenue streams,” explains Wong Tsui.
Michelle Grayson, Head of Operations at The Red Tree, adds: “Successful merch can be a goldmine as well as a game-changer for colour cosmetics companies.”
This trend discovers the secret formula for a winning merch strategy.
Trend 5: Climate-adaptive cosmetics
As heatwaves become more intense, frequent and prolonged, demand is growing for humidity-proof make-up, with consumers seeking hacks, routines and products that prevent cosmetics from melting away as temperatures rise.
Global temperatures have now exceeded 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels for 12 months in a row, according to June 2024 data from The Copernicus Climate Change Service, a level that leads to increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons and shorter cold seasons according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
For the beauty industry there are all sorts of growing pressures as a result, nevertheless climate-adaptive cosmetics have become a melting pot of opportunity.
Nick Vaus, Partner and Creative Director at Free The Birds says: “The rapidly shifting climates we now encounter month on month, year on year, has left many brands feeling the pressure of how to deliver for customers who are unsure of what demands they need to meet on an almost daily basis.
“Because of this, it is of vital importance that brands meet consumers’ specific needs, based upon shifting seasonal and environmental demands.”
Featured companies
- Companies:
- Estée Lauder Companies
- Free the Birds
- Kantar
- ByteDance
- Rhode
- Pleasing
- Circana