Overall, from 2018, the cosmetics industry has grown by 19.9%, with an average annual increase of 3.1%. For the next 4 years, the EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL team forecasts a much more positive trend, with an average annual growth for the 2024-2028 period of 9%. Leading the market is the skincare sector, which in 2023 recorded a total value of $161.7 billion. A growth of 12.6% is expected for 2024, reaching an overall value of nearly $174.3 billion. According to EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL forecasts, the colour cosmetics segment will experience an 8.9% growth in 2024 compared to the previous year: from the $73.4 billion value recorded in 2023, by the end of the year, the sector is expected to generate an overall turnover of $82.3 billion. Fragrances also show excellent results: in 2023, the overall turnover reached $64.5 billion, and by the end of 2024, the sector is expected to exceed $71 billion, with a growth of 6.5%.
Double-digit growth will also affect the sun care and deodorant segments, which in 2024 will reach a turnover of €16.9 billion (+11% compared to 2023) and €28 billion (+10% compared to 2023), respectively.
TOP PERFORMING COUNTRIES
In analysing the results of the most performing markets, the USA leads the ranking: the cosmetic market in the country reached $128.9 billion in 2023, and a 5% growth is expected in 2024, reaching $135.7 billion.
China is slowing down, as evidenced across all sectors. In 2023, the area recorded a turnover of $83.3 billion, with an 8% increase compared to 2022. In 2024, a total market value of $88.9 billion is expected, with a 7% growth, slightly lower than the previous annual percentage. The trend of a slowdown in annual growth rates is expected to characterise the next 2024 - 2028 quadrennium. The projections indeed highlight an annual growth rate of 6%.
Brazil shows excellent results, too. In 2023, the cosmetic market in the country recorded a value of $36.6 billion, significantly growing compared to 2022 (+13%). The growth rate for 2024 is expected to slow down, with a 9% growth and a year-end turnover of $39.9 billion. Overall, for the next four years, an average annual growth of 8% is forecasted.
Germany confirms its position as the top European market for cosmetics, which in 2023 recorded an overall turnover of $24.7 billion, with a forecast for the end of 2024 of $25.9 billion (+5%). From 2024 to 2028, an average annual growth rate of 4% is expected.
Mexico is among the top 5 countries in terms of business volume related to beauty. The local cosmetics industry recorded a total value of $17.2 billion in 2023, up by 14% compared to 2022. For 2024, a total turnover of $19.1 billion is expected (+11%). Over the next 4 years, the average annual growth rate will settle at 10%.
Generally speaking, it's the Southeast Asian markets that are recording double-digit growth percentages from 2023 to 2024. It's worth noting Malaysia, with an annual growth in 2024 of 14%, from $3.6 billion to $4.1 billion. The country also records the highest average annual growth rate in the region for the 2024-2028 period, with a projected growth of 16%.
Thailand's cosmetics market is developing as well. Annual income is increasing from $7.6 in 2023 to $8.5 billion in 2024, with a growth of 11%. In the next 4 years (2024 – 2028) the industry will continue growing, even if with a lower CAGR (8&).
The beauty market results in the Philippines are also very positive, with an expected growth in 2024 of 11%, from $5 billion to $5.5 billion. The same percentage of increase is projected Hong Kong: the region is back to growth, from $4.8 billion in turnover in 2023 to $5.3 billion.
THE MOST PROMISING EMERGING MARKETS
At Cosmoprof Worldwide Bologna 2024, EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL analysed the results of the most promising emerging markets. Firstly, the agency put the spotlight on Indonesia: from a turnover of $7.4 billion in 2023, the country is expected to reach a total turnover of $8.1 billion by the end of 2024, with a growth of 9%.
Following that, Saudi Arabia, an economy system in strong development. From $6.8 billion in 2023, the local beauty market is expected to record a turnover of $7.4 billion in 2024, an increase of 8%. Taiwan's results are also interesting: the island will reach a turnover of just under $5 billion in 2024, an increase of 6% compared to 2023.
However, it is Pakistan, Egypt, and Indonesia that according to experts will record the most significant annual growth rates from 2023 to 2024. Pakistan will achieve a very positive growth of 31%, moving from a turnover of $1.7 billion to $2.6 billion by the end of the year. Egypt recorded a turnover of $1.6 billion in 2023; by 2024, the country will register a growth of 15%, reaching a value of $1.9 billion. Indonesia and Vietnam will grow by 9%; the latter will reach a value of $3.1 billion compared to the $2.8 billion recorded in 2023.
To complete the analysis, EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL has collected forecasts for average annual growth over the next four years, from 2024 to 2028, to highlight the markets that will experience the greatest growth in the near future. Pakistan is expected to record an average annual growth rate of 27%, with a slightly slower pace compared to the growth from 2023 to 2024. On the contrary, average annual growth is expected to increase in Egypt (+19% CAGR) and in Saudi Arabia (+12% CAGR). The development of the cosmetic market in Bangladesh, Vietnam, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates is also noteworthy, with an annual increase in growth rates over the next 4 years.
